Explained: How A CAF Rule Change Could Put Nigeria Back In The World Cup Race

Explained: How A CAF Rule Change Could Put Nigeria Back In The World Cup Race

By Niyi Busari 

 Nigeria’s bid to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup has received a significant lift following a rule adjustment announced by the Confederation of African Football (CAF), in collaboration with FIFA, BSNSports.com.ng reports.

The revision comes in response to Eritrea’s withdrawal from the qualification process, which has left Group E with only five teams instead of the standard six creating an imbalance across the competition’s structure.

To address this, CAF and FIFA have proposed a key change: when calculating the four best group runners-up who will advance to the intercontinental playoff round, points earned against the bottom-placed team in each group will be excluded.

This measure aims to ensure fairness for all nations, especially those in groups affected by withdrawals. The rule is consistent with Article 11.5 of the FIFA World Cup 2026 Preliminary Competition Regulations, which allows for such adjustments in the event of a team’s disqualification or withdrawal.

Impact on Nigeria and Other Contenders

The change could dramatically reshape the qualification landscape. Teams like Burkina Faso, DR Congo, Madagascar, and Gabon, who each earned six points against current group bottom-dwellers stand to lose those points if the adjustment is enforced.

Conversely, Nigeria, who have taken only two points off Zimbabwe (currently last in their group), would benefit significantly. Cameroon, also in contention, could drop four points, potentially pushing Nigeria higher up the ranking of second-placed teams.

Nigeria is currently outside the top spot in their group, but the revised format places them in a stronger position to secure a playoff berth, even if they finish second.

CAF Clarifies Rule Change

In a circular dated March 14, 2025, CAF Director of Competitions Samson Adamu confirmed the move, stating the adjustment was necessary to “maintain sporting integrity and ensure balanced comparison” across all qualifying groups.

“This change is essential to guarantee fairness in a competition format affected by unforeseen team withdrawals,” Adamu noted.

Key Fixtures Ahead

With crucial matches approaching against Lesotho and Benin Republic, the Super Eagles will look to capitalize on the adjusted format and revive their campaign after missing out on the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

The recalibrated standings offer Nigeria a renewed path to qualification, provided they secure victories in the remaining fixtures.